The Key House Races 2010

28 August 2010 Update - Biggest Gains Yet by the Republicans

This weeks news:

It was a BIG WEEK for our "Experts" and as usual the changes were highly favorable to the Republicans. We had a total of 55 updates this week, the largest number we've recorded for a single week. CQ Politics finally woke up up so we will lay off of them for awhile. RCP also came through with several updates. And Sabato has promised a major update on September 2nd.

See below for the summary.

We have winners in the Arizona and Florida primaries.

The Master List has been updated to include the winners of all completed primaries The "Race at a Glance" entries on the KHR Home Page have also been updated to include the Arizona and Florida primaries and all funding data, polls and "Expert Ratings" have been updated as well. Our normal procedure is to update the financial data and Expert Ratings once a week but to update the poll data as we find it.

So please send us links to any poll data that you think we've missed. You can always see our latest 3 polls on the KHR Home Page and we also list the most recent poll for each district on the KHR Polls Page.


Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:

  • There were a total of 55 updates this week to the 93 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
  • 46 were favorable to the Republicans
  • 9  were favorable to the Democrats

Those changes moved our index to -.177 from last weeks -.251. That's a very big jump and reflects the fact that the Republicans won this weeks rating upgrade race by a huge margin. Take a look at our KeyHouseRaces Experts Page to see where the changes in ratings were this week - lots of RED entries. For the newbies, the -.177 figure means that the average "Expert Rating" for every race on our list is rated a Toss-Up but slightly favoring the Dems. If the index gets into positive territory (where it seems to be heading) then the average rating for all 93 races would be Toss-Up with a Republican tilt.

Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page

We've added a new page to show the Master List in a ranked order last week and there is now a link to this page on KeyHouseRaces Home Page. The ranking is based on the average Expert Rating of each district by our six "Experts" with the Most likely Republican winners at the top and the most likely Dem winners at the bottom. The fight for control of the House is in the middle of this list where the Toss-Up races meet the Leans Ds. That's the ones we have to win.

You  can see the ranked version of the Master List HERE .

Just a reminder: Here is the schedule for all the remaining Primaries:

August 28: Louisiana

September 14: District of Columbia, Delaware, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin

September 18: Hawaii

District Dem Primary Winner Incumbent
or Open		 Republican Incumbent or Challengers ALL Primary Experts District
Or Incumbent Main Challenger Challenger Challenger
AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D Martha Roby AL 1-Jun Toss-Up AL 2
AR 1 Chad Causey Open D Rick Crawford AR 18-May Toss-Up AR 1
AR 2 Joyce Elliott Open D Tim Griffin AR 18-May Likely R AR 2
AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick Incumbent D Paul Gosar AZ 24-Aug Leans D AZ 1
AZ 5 Harold Mitchell Incumbent D David Schweikert AZ 24-Aug Leans D AZ 5
AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords Incumbent D Jesse Kelly AZ 24-Aug Leans D AZ 8
CA 3 Ami Bera Incumbent R Dan Lungren CA 8-Jun Leans R CA 3
CA 11 Jerry McNerney Incumbent D David Harmer CA 8-Jun Leans D CA 11
CA 47 Loretta Sanchez Incumbent D Van Tran CA 8-Jun Likely D CA 47
CO 3 John Salazar Incumbent D Scott Tipton CO 10-Aug Leans D CO 3
CO 4 Betsy Markey Incumbent D Cory Gardner CO 10-Aug Leans R CO 4
CT 4 Jim Himes Incumbent D Dan Debicella CT 10-Aug Likely D CT 4
CT 5 Christopher Murphy Incumbent D Sam Caligiuri CT 10-Aug Likely D CT 5
DE AL Dem Primary Open R Glen Urquhart Michele Rollins Rose Izzo DE 14-Sep Leans D DE AL
FL 2 Allen Boyd Incumbent D Steve Southerland FL 24-Aug Toss-Up FL 2
FL 8 Alan Grayson Incumbent D Daniel Webster FL 24-Aug Toss-Up FL 8
FL 12 Lori Edwards Open R Dennis Ross FL 24-Aug Likely R FL 12
FL 22 Ron Klein Incumbent D Allen West FL 24-Aug Leans D FL 22
FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas Incumbent D Sandy Adams FL 24-Aug Toss-Up FL 24
FL 25 Joe Garcia Open R David Rivera FL 24-Aug Leans R FL 25
GA 8 Jim Marshall Incumbent D Austin Scott GA 20-Jul Leans D GA 8
HI 1 Colleen Hanabusa Incumbent R Charles Djou HI 18-Sep Toss-Up HI 1
IA 3 Leonard Boswell Incumbent D Brad Zaun IA 8-Jun Toss-Up IA 3
ID 1 Walter Minnick Incumbent D Raul Labrador ID 25-May Leans D ID 1
IL 8 Melissa Bean Incumbent D Joe Walsh IL 2-Feb Likely D IL 8
IL 10 Dan Seals Open R Bob Dold IL 2-Feb Toss-Up IL 10
IL 11 Debbie Halvorson Incumbent D Adam Kinzinger IL 2-Feb Toss-Up IL 11
IL 14 Bill Foster Incumbent D Randy Hultgren IL 2-Feb Toss-Up IL 14
IN 2 Joe Donnelly Incumbent D Jackie Walorski IN 4-May Leans D IN 2
IN 8 W. Trent Van Haaften Open D Dr. Larry Bucshon IN 4-May Toss-Up IN 8
IN 9 Baron Hill Incumbent D Todd Young IN 4-May Toss-Up IN 9
KS 3 Stephene Moore Open D Kevin Yoder KS 3-Aug Leans R KS 3
KY 6 Ben Chandler Incumbent D Andy Barr KY 8-May Leans D KY 6
LA 2 Dem Primary Incumbent R Joseph Cao LA 28-Aug Leans D LA 2
LA 3 Open D (Melancon) Open D Hunt Downer Jeff Landry Kristian Magar LA 28-Aug Likely R LA 3
MA 10 Open D (Delahunt) Open D Jeff Perry Joe Malone Ray Kasperowicz MA 14-Sep Leans D MA 10
MD 1 Frank Kratovil Incumbent D Andy Harris Jeannie Riccio Jeff Ghrist MD 14-Sep Leans R MD 1
MI 1 Gary McDowell Open D Dr. Daniel Benishek Jason Allen RECOUNT MI 3-Aug Toss-Up MI 1
MI 7 Mark Schauer Incumbent D Tim Walberg MI 3-Aug Toss-Up MI 7
MI 9 Gary Peters Incumbent D "Rocky" Raczowski MI 3-Aug Likely D MI 9
MN 1 Tim Walz Incumbent D Randy Demmer MN 14-Sep Likely D MN 1
MN 6 Tarryl Clark Incumbent R Michele Bachmann MN 10-Aug Likely R MN 6
MO 4 Ike Skelton Incumbent D Vicky Hartzler MO 3-Aug Leans D MO 4
MS 1 Travis Childers Incumbent D Alan Nunnelee MS 1-Jun Toss-Up MS 1
NC 8 Larry Kissell Incumbent D Harold Johnson NC 4-May Toss-Up NC 8
ND AL Earl Pomeroy Incumbent D Rick Berg ND 8-Jun Leans R ND AL
NE 2 Tom White Incumbent R Lee Terry NE 11-May Likely R NE 2
NH 1 Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent D Frank Guinta Sean Mahoney Rich Ashooh NH 14-Sep Toss-Up NH 1
NH 2 Open D (Paul Hodes) Open D Jennifer Horn Charlie Bass Bob Giuda NH 14-Sep Toss-Up NH 2
NJ 3 John Adler Incumbent D Jon Runyan NJ 8-Jun Leans D NJ 3
NM 1 Martin Heinrich Incumbent D Jon Barela NM 1-Jun Leans D NM 1
NM 2 Harry Teague Incumbent D Steve Pearce NM 1-Jun Leans R NM 2
NV 3 Dina Titus Incumbent D Dr. Joe Heck NV 8-Jun Toss-Up NV 3
NY 1 Tim Bishop Incumbent D Randy Altschuler George Demos Chris Cox NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 1
NY 13 Mike McMahon Incumbent D Mike Grimm Michael Allegretti NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 13
NY 19 John Hall Incumbent D Nan Hayworth Thomas DeChiaro NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 19
NY 20 Scott Murphy Incumbent D Chris Gibson NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 20
NY 23 Bill Owens Incumbent D Doug Hoffman Matt Doheny NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 23
NY 24 Mike Arcuri Incumbent D Richard Hanna NY 14-Sep Toss-Up NY 24
NY 25 Dan Maffei Incumbent D Ann Marie Buerkle NY 14-Sep Likely D NY 25
NY 29 Open D (Massa) Open D Tom Reed Angelo Campini George Winner NY 14-Sep Likely R NY 29
OH 1 Steve Driehaus Incumbent D Steve Chabot OH 4-May Leans R OH 1
OH 2 Surya Yalamanchili Incumbent R Jean Schmidt OH 4-May Safe R OH 2
OH 13 Betty Sutton Incumbent D Tom Ganley OH 4-May Leans D OH 13
OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy Incumbent D Steve Stivers OH 4-May Leans R OH 15
OH 16 John Boccieri Incumbent D Jim Renacci OH 4-May Toss-Up OH 16
OH 18 Zach Space Incumbent D Bob Gibbs OH 4-May Leans D OH 18
OR 5 Kurt Schrader Incumbent D Scott Bruun OR 18-May Leans D
PA 3 Kathleen Dahlkemper Incumbent D Mike Kelly PA 18-May Toss-Up PA 3
PA 4 Jason Altmire Incumbent D Keith Rothfus PA 18-May Likely D PA 4
PA 6 Manan Trivedi Incumbent R Jim Gerlach PA 18-May Likely R PA 6
PA 7 Bryan Lentz Open D Pat Meehan PA 18-May Toss-Up PA 7
PA 8 Patrick Murphy Incumbent D Mike Fitzpatrick PA 18-May Leans D PA 8
PA 10 Chris Carney Incumbent D Tom Marino PA 18-May Leans D PA 10
PA 11 Paul Kanjorski Incumbent D Lou Barletta PA 18-May Toss-Up PA 11
PA 12 Mark Critz Incumbent D Timothy Burns PA 18-May Leans D PA 12
PA 17 Tim Holden Incumbent D David Argall PA 18-May Likely D PA 17
SC 5 John Spratt Jr. Incumbent D Mick Mulvaney SC 8-Jun Toss-Up SC 5
SD AL Stephanie Sandlin Incumbent D Kristi Noem SD 8-Jun Toss-Up SD AL
TN 4 Lincoln Davis Incumbent D Dr. Scott Desjarlais TN 5-Aug Likely D TN 4
TN 6 Brett Carter Open D Diane Black TN 5-Aug Likely R TN 6
TN 8 Roy Herron Open D Stephen Fincher TN 5-Aug Toss-Up TN 8
TX 17 Chet Edwards Incumbent D Bill Flores TX 13-Apr Toss-Up TX 17
TX 23 Ciro Rodriguez Incumbent D Quico Canseco TX 13-Apr Leans D TX 23
VA 2 Glenn Nye Incumbent D Scott Rigell VA 8-Jun Toss-Up VA 2
VA 5 Tom Perriello Incumbent D Robert Hurt VA 8-Jun Toss-Up VA 5
VA 9 Rick Boucher Incumbent D Morgan Griffith VA 8-Jun Leans D VA 9
VA 11 Gerald Connolly Incumbent D Keith Fimian VA 8-Jun Leans D VA 11
WA 3 Denny Heck Open D Jaime Herrera WA 17-Aug Toss-Up WA 3
WA 8 Suzan DelBene Incumbent R Dave Reichert WA 17-Aug Leans R WA 8
WI 7 Open D (Obey) Open D Sean Duffy Dan Mielke WI 14-Sep Toss-Up WI 7
WI 8 Steve Kagen Incumbent D Terri McCormick Roger Roth WI 14-Sep Leans D WI 8
WV 1 Mike Oliverio Open D David B. McKinley WV 11-May Toss-Up WV 1
Code Color Code Indicates
New Entry or Major Change Average Expert’s Rating of the Master List -0.177
Upcoming Primary or Runoff
Republican Primary Winner - Completed Primary
Republican Open Seat or Contested Seat
Open Dem Seat
Updated 29-Aug-10
Rating and Color Code Average Expert
From To
Safe D -3 -2.5
Likely D -2.5 -1.5
Leans D -1.5 -0.5
Toss-Up -0.5 0
Toss-Up 0 0.5
Leans R 0.5 1.5
Likely R 1.5 2.5
Safe R 2.5 3.5