Tier 2 List

FINAL UPDATE: 1 November 2010

  • We Moved: ME-02, MO-03 and TX-27 to the Master List
  • We Added: OR-04 to the Tier 2 List

The Tier 2 List: The races that we are watching that are not quite competitive enough YET to be moved to the Master List.

We've made a change to the way we select districts for the Tier-2 List since the previous post on August 1. WE ARE NOW ONLY INCLUDING DISTRICTS ON THE TIER-2 LIST WHERE AT LEAST ONE EXPERT HAS RATED RACES AS LEANS-D OR BETTER. DISTRICTS THAT DO NOT MEET THAT CRITERIA BUT HAD BEEN "GRANDFATHERED" ON TO THE LIST HAVE BEEN DELETED.

The "Expert" ratings have been updated for all districts on the new Tier 2 List and the "Leans D" and "Likely D" ratings have been highlighted. The addition of a second "Leans D" or better will move the District off the Tier 2 List and onto the Master List. IL-17 was in  that category and has moved up to the Master List which now numbers 99 races with 87 Dems and 12 Republican districts.

We do request recommendations for additions to the Tier-2 list and the Master List but but those additions will not be made unless there is solid polling data and/or "Expert" evaluations that justify the change.

New District Democrat Seat Republican Experts Avg. Sabato CQP EP.com Cook Rothenberg RCP District
CA 18 Dennis Cardoza Incumbent D Mike Berryhill Likely D -2.3 Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D CA 18
KY 3 Jon Yarmuth Incumbent D Todd Lally Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Likely D Likely D Leans D KY 3
NJ 12 Rush Holt Incumbent D Scott Sipprelle Likely D -2.3 Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D NJ 12
NM 3 Ben Luján Incumbent D Tom Mullins Likely D -2.5 Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D NM 3
MI 15 John Dingell Incumbent D Rob Steele Safe D -2.7 Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Leans D MI 15
OR 4 Peter DeFazio Incumbent D Art Robinson Likely D -2.5 Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D OR 4
WA 9 Adam Smith Incumbent D Dick Muri Likely D -2.3 Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Toss-Up WA 9