Pickup Projection Trend - Expert Ratings Model

Political Junkie Too, the resident statistical wiz at Freerepublic.com has taken the average KeyHouseRaces ratings by our 6 "Experts" for each of the districts on our Master List and built a computer model to generate an estimate of the outcome of the 2010 election for the House of Representatives. The model uses a technique known as a Monte Carlo simulation that utilizes probability functions for each of the KeyHouseRaces ratings categories - Leans D, Toss Up, etc and then runs a simulated election based on these probabilities.

The results shown below are the average of 32,000 runs of this computer model each week since April 9th. Since the election simulation has been conducted weekly since early April we can see the how the views of our six KeyHouseRaces "Experts" have evolved over time. It should be clear from the table and plot below that our "Experts" are a bit behind the curve in terms of predicting a takeover of the House by the GOP. This is, in our very humble opinion, the result of the fact that the Experts read the same polls we do, they then ponder the situation, take a look at what their competitors are thinking and then make a change to their ratings. This puts at least a 2-3 week delay in their assessment of the various races on the Master List.

But that delay should disappear soon. There is a deadline coming on November 2nd and we expect our "Experts" to be right there with the rest of the pack as we close in on Election Day 2010.

Political Junkie Too has built an alternate model that is a Poll Based prediction of the 2010 election for the House of Representatives. You can see the results of that analysis HERE.

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Expert Ratings Model The data from the above table is plotted below. The Dashed Red Line shows the probability that the GOP will re-take the House and it crossed over the 50% point on October 9th. The Dark Black Line shows the trendline for House GOP seats that has steadily rising since we began collecting the "Expert" ratings in April. That Purple Line at the top of the plot represents an estimate of the maximum number of seats that the GOP could pickup. Only 10% of the Monte Runs exceeded these value. Likewise, the Green Line provides an estimate of the lower limit of the GOP seats - only 10% of the Monte Carlo runs fell below these values. The bottom line: The trend is up and we need to keep it going up right to November 2nd.