Our Experts - Rating the House Races

Final Update:  1 November 2010  - Showing the Rating Changes by our "Experts" in the last 9 days

Expert Ratings highlighted in      R E D   have been upgraded in favor of the Republicans

Expert Ratings highlighted in   BLUE    have been upgraded in favor of the Democrats

Our selection of the House Races that are in play for the 2010 election cycle is based on the evaluations of all the House races by 6 "Expert Election Evaluators". The "experts" that we selected are:

Although the exact methodology and naming conventions utilized by these 6 "experts" varies somewhat, they generally sort each race into one of the following 7 categories:

  • SAFE-R
  • LIKELY-R
  • LEANS-R
  • TOSS-UP
  • LEANS-D
  • LIKELY-D
  • SAFE-D

Although it may be surprising to some, the great majority of House races are in either the SAFE-R  or the SAFE-D category. Our selection of the Key House Races for 2010 draws primarily from the LEANS-R, TOSS-UP and LEANS-D categories but we have a few LIKELY-D and an even fewer SAFE-D districts on our initial list which was developed in late March and early April 2010. These are the races that are really competitive.

In order to simplify our main list of the Key House Races we have chosen to compute an average of the evaluations of our 6 "experts". The method used was to simply apply a numerical value to the evaluation along the following lines: SAFE-R = 3, LIKELY-R = 2, LEANS-R = 1, TOSS-UP = 0, LEANS-D = -1, LIKELY-D = -2 AND SAFE-D = -3 and then average these scores to compute an average expert rating of the races.

You can read about a very similar approach developed independently by Patrick Ishmael and described in his Hot Air article "The numbers made easy: How Republicans will likely take the House' by clicking HERE.

The colored elements reflect the changes in favor of the Republicans in RED and the Dems in BLUE. These are the changes made in the most recent update of the ratings of our "experts". Our normal procedure is to update weekly on Saturday morning. So the colored changes shown represent updates made by the "experts" in the last week. If you see lots of RED that's good for the Republicans, lots of BLUE. is good for the Dems.

In YELLOW at the bottom of the chart are the average scores and average ratings of our full Master List by each of the experts as well as an overall average rating for the full KHR Master List.

At the bottom of the chart is the Color Coding Scheme for the Average Expert Rating. Red and Pink mean the "Experts" are favoring the Republicans and Blue and Light Blue indicate that the Dems are favored.

 

District   Incumbent Party Average Avg. Sabato CQP EP.com Cook Rothenberg RCP District  
AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Leans D Toss-Up Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up AL 2
                           
AR 1 Open D Open D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R AR 1
AR 2 Open D Open D Likely R 2.2 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R AR 2
                           
AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick Incumbent D Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R AZ 1
AZ 5 Harold Mitchell Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R AZ 5
AZ 7 Raúl Grijalva Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up AZ 7
AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R AZ 8
                           
CA 3 Dan Lungren Incumbent R Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R CA 3
CA 11 Jerry McNerney Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R CA 11
CA 20 Jim Costa Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.2 Leans D Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Leans D Leans R CA 20
CA 47 Loretta Sanchez Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Leans D CA 47
                           
CO 3 John Salazar Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R CO 3
CO 4 Betsy Markey Incumbent D Leans R 1.3 Leans R Likely R Weak R Leans R Likely R Leans R CO 4
CO 7 Ed Perlmutter Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Likely D Leans D Weak D Likely D Likely D Toss-Up CO 7
                           
CT 4 Jim Himes Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up CT 4
CT 5 Christopher Murphy Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up CT 5
                           
DE AL Open R Open R Leans D -1.5 Leans D Likely D Mod D Likely D Leans D Leans D DE AL
                           
FL 2 Allen Boyd Incumbent D Leans R 1.5 Leans R Leans R Safe R Leans R Likely R Leans R FL 2
FL 8 Alan Grayson Incumbent D Leans R 1.5 Leans R Leans R Mod R Likely R Likely R Leans R FL 8
FL 22 Ron Klein Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R FL 22
FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas Incumbent D Leans R 1.5 Leans R Likely R Mod R Leans R Likely R Leans R FL 24
FL 25 Open R Open R Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R FL 25
                           
GA 2 Sanford Bishop Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans D Leans R GA 2
GA 8 Jim Marshall Incumbent D Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R GA 8
                           
HI 1 Charles Djou Incumbent R Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up HI 1
                           
IA 1 Bruce Braley Incumbent D Leans D -1.5 Likely D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Leans D IA 1
IA 2 Dave Loebsack Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Leans D IA 2
IA 3 Leonard Boswell Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Likely D Leans D IA 3
                           
ID 1 Walter Minnick Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.2 Leans R Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up ID 1
                           
IL 8 Melissa Bean Incumbent D Likely D -2.3 Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D IL 8
IL 10 Open R Open R Toss-Up -0.3 Leans D Leans D Weak R Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up IL 10
IL 11 Debbie Halvorson Incumbent D Likely R 1.8 Leans R Likely R Safe R Leans R Likely R Likely R IL 11
IL 14 Bill Foster Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R IL 14
IL 17 Phil Hare Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R IL 17
                           
IN 2 Joe Donnelly Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Toss-Up IN 2
IN 8 Open D Open D Likely R 1.8 Leans R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Leans R IN 8
IN 9 Baron Hill Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Leans R Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R IN 9
                           
KS 3 Open D Open D Likely R 2.2 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R KS 3
                           
KY 6 Ben Chandler Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Toss-Up 6 0
                           
LA 2 Joseph Cao Incumbent R Leans D -1.3 Leans D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Leans D LA 2
LA 3 Open D Open D Likely R 2.3 Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R LA 3
                           
MA 4 Barney Frank Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Leans D Safe D Leans D MA 4
MA 10 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.0 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up MA 10
                           
MD 1 Frank Kratovil Incumbent D Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R MD 1
                           
ME 1 Chellie Pingree Incumbent D Likely D -1.7 Safe D Leans D Safe D Toss-Up Safe D Toss-Up ME 1
ME 2 Mike Michaud Incumbent D Likely D -2.2 Safe D Safe D Safe D Leans D Safe D Toss-Up ME 2
                           
MI 1   Open D Leans R 1.3 Leans R Leans R Mod R Safe R Toss-Up Leans R MI 1
MI 7 Mark Schauer Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up MI 7
MI 9 Gary Peters Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Likely D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up MI 9
                           
MN 1 Tim Walz Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Leans D Leans D Mod D Leans D Likely D Leans D MN 1
MN 8 Jim Oberstar Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Likely D Likely D Weak D Toss-Up Safe D Toss-Up MN 8
                           
MO 3 Russ Carnahan Incumbent D Leans D -1.5 Likely D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Leans D MO 3
MO 4 Ike Skelton Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.3 Leans D Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up MO 4
                           
MS 1 Travis Childers Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R MS 1
MS 4 Gene Taylor Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Leans D Safe D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up MS 4
                           
NC 2 Bob Etheridge Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Likely D Likely D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up NC 2
NC 7 Mike McIntyre Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Likely D Safe D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NC 7
NC 8 Larry Kissell Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans D Toss-Up NC 8
NC 11 Heath Shuler Incumbent D Leans D -1.5 Likely D Likely D Mod D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up NC 11
                           
ND AL Earl Pomeroy Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up ND AL
                           
NH 1 Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent D Leans R 1.3 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Likely R Leans R NH 1
NH 2 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NH 2
                           
NJ 3 John Adler Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NJ 3
                           
NM 1 Martin Heinrich Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NM 1
NM 2 Harry Teague Incumbent D Leans R 1.0 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R NM 2
                           
NV 3 Dina Titus Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Leans R Weak R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R NV 3
                           
NY 1 Tim Bishop Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Likely D Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NY 1
NY 13 Mike McMahon Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up NY 13
NY 19 John Hall Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NY 19
NY 20 Scott Murphy Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NY 20
NY 22 Maurice Hinchey Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Leans D Safe D Leans D NY 22
NY 23 Bill Owens Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NY 23
NY 24 Mike Arcuri Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.3 Leans D Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NY 24
NY 25 Dan Maffei Incumbent D Leans D -1.5 Likely D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Leans D NY 25
NY 29 Open D Open D Likely R 2.3 Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R NY 29
                           
OH 1 Steve Driehaus Incumbent D Leans R 1.2 Leans R Likely R Mod R Leans D Likely R Leans R OH 1
OH 6 Charlie Wilson Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Leans D Safe D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up OH 6
OH 13 Betty Sutton Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Likely D Likely D Leans D OH 13
OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy Incumbent D Likely R 1.7 Leans R Likely R Mod R Leans R Likely R Likely R OH 15
OH 16 John Boccieri Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R OH 16
OH 18 Zach Space Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Leans D Toss-Up Leans R OH 18
                           
OR 5 Kurt Schrader Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.0 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up OR 5
                           
PA 3 Kathleen Dahlkemper Incumbent D Leans R 1.5 Leans R Likely R Mod R Leans R Likely R Leans R PA 3
PA 4 Jason Altmire Incumbent D Likely D -1.7 Likely D Likely D Mod D Leans D Likely D Leans D PA 4
PA 7 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Leans R Toss-Up Toss-Up PA 7
PA 8 Patrick Murphy Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up PA 8
PA 10 Chris Carney Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Leans D Toss-Up Leans R PA 10
PA 11 Paul Kanjorski Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Leans R Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up PA 11
PA 12 Mark Critz Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up PA 12
PA 17 Tim Holden Incumbent D Likely D -2.2 Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D PA 17
                           
RI 1 Open D Open D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Likely D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up RI 1
                           
SC 5 John Spratt Jr. Incumbent D Leans R 1.0 Leans R Leans R Mod R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R SC 5
                           
SD AL Stephanie Sandlin Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R SD AL
                           
TN 4 Lincoln Davis Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up TN 4
TN 6 Open D Open D Likely R 2.3 Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R TN 6
TN 8 Open D Open D Likely R 2.2 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R TN 8
                           
TX 17 Chet Edwards Incumbent D Likely R 1.8 Leans R Likely R Safe R Leans R Likely R Likely R TX 17
TX 23 Ciro Rodriguez Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R TX 23
TX 27 Solomon Ortiz Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Safe D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up TX 27
                           
UT 2 Jim Matheson Incumbent D Likely D -2.3 Safe D Safe D Safe D Leans D Safe D Leans D UT 2
                           
VA 2 Glenn Nye Incumbent D Leans R 1.0 Leans R Leans R Weak R Leans R Leans R Leans R VA 2
VA 5 Tom Perriello Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R VA 5
VA 9 Rick Boucher Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up VA 9
VA 11 Gerald Connolly Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Toss-Up VA 11
                           
WA 2 Rick Larsen Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Toss-Up WA 2
WA 3 Open D Open D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Toss-Up Toss-Up WA 3
WA 8 Dave Reichert Incumbent R Leans R 1.5 Leans R Leans R Mod R Likely R Likely R Leans R WA 8
                           
WI 3 Ron Kind Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up WI 3
WI 7 Open D Open D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R WI 7
WI 8 Steve Kagen Incumbent D Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R WI 8
                           
WV 1 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up WV 1
WV 3 Nick Rahall Incumbent D Likely D -2.0 Likely D Likely D Mod D Likely D Safe D Leans D WV 3
District       Average Avg. Sabato CQP EP.com Cook Rothenberg RCP District  
Average     Toss-Up 0.043 Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Average
Updated     1-Nov-10 -0.091 -0.227 0.427 0.045 -0.191 0.391 Updated
Rating and Color Code Average Expert              
Rating              
From To              
Safe D -3 -2.5              
Likely D -2.5 -1.5              
Leans D -1.5 -0.5              
Toss-Up -0.5 0              
Toss-Up 0 0.5              
Leans R 0.5 1.5              
Likely R 1.5 2.5              
Safe R 2.5 3.5