The Master List - Just the Vulnerable Dems

FINAL UPDATE: 1 November 2010

A 39 SEAT PICKUP IS REQUIRED FOR  THE REPUBLICANS TO WIN CONTROL OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

  • We now have 112 Competitive Races - 105 Dem Seats and 7 Republican Seats
  • 70 of the Dem Seats are rated Toss Up, Leans R or Likely  R. That's up from 63 last week and 61 two weeks ago.
  • 95 Dem Seats are rated no better (for the Dems) than Leans D. That's an increase from last weeks 83.
  • Just 10 of those Dem seats are rated as Likely D.
  • There are ZERO Safe D seats on this list
  • Only 2 Republican Seats are rated as low as Leans D. The other 5 are rated as Toss Up or better

The Master List contains 112 races that we believe are in play this year. That number may well expand in time period leading up to the election on November 2nd but we have made the decision to not remove races from the list even if they  are now looking very solid for either the Republicans or the Dems. To make it easier to see the races that are looking good for the GOP and those that are still looking solid for the Dems we have sorted the Master List by by the average "Expert Ratings". This puts the relatively safe R-Seats at the top of the list and the relatively safe D-Seats at the bottom.

THE MASTER LIST VERSION SHOWN BELOW IS JUST THE DEMS ON OUR LIST. THERE ARE 105 OF THEM AND THE MOST VULNERABLE ARE AT THE TOP OF THE LIST.

In the middle of the list where the Toss-Ups meet the Leans-Ds is where the battle for the House is currently being fought. Those are the races that could easily go either way and so those are the races that need to be funded. If you want to see a Republican led House of Representatives in 2011 send your money to those candidates in the Toss-Up category and those that are high on the list in the Leans D categories.

And stay tuned. This ranking is updated every Saturday and things will change. As the new polls come out we are going to see some major changes in these ratings and those changes are likely to favor the Republicans.

 

Rank   Democrat Seat Republican Experts Avg. District
1 LA 3 Ravi Sangisetty Open D Jeff Landry Likely R 2.3 LA 3
2 NY 29 Mathew Zeller Open D Tom Reed Likely R 2.3 NY 29
3 TN 6 Brett Carter Open D Diane Black Likely R 2.3 TN 6
4 AR 2 Joyce Elliott Open D Tim Griffin Likely R 2.2 AR 2
5 KS 3 Stephene Moore Open D Kevin Yoder Likely R 2.2 KS 3
6 TN 8 Roy Herron Open D Stephen Fincher Likely R 2.2 TN 8
7 IL 11 Debbie Halvorson Incumbent D Adam Kinzinger Likely R 1.8 IL 11
8 IN 8 W. Trent Van Haaften Open D Dr. Larry Bucshon Likely R 1.8 IN 8
9 TX 17 Chet Edwards Incumbent D Bill Flores Likely R 1.8 TX 17
10 OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy Incumbent D Steve Stivers Likely R 1.7 OH 15
11 FL 2 Allen Boyd Incumbent D Steve Southerland Leans R 1.5 FL 2
12 FL 8 Alan Grayson Incumbent D Daniel Webster Leans R 1.5 FL 8
13 FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas Incumbent D Sandy Adams Leans R 1.5 FL 24
14 PA 3 Kathleen Dahlkemper Incumbent D Mike Kelly Leans R 1.5 PA 3
15 CO 4 Betsy Markey Incumbent D Cory Gardner Leans R 1.3 CO 4
16 MI 1 Gary McDowell Open D Dr. Daniel Benishek Leans R 1.3 MI 1
17 NH 1 Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent D Frank Guinta Leans R 1.3 NH 1
18 AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick Incumbent D Paul Gosar Leans R 1.2 AZ 1
19 GA 8 Jim Marshall Incumbent D Austin Scott Leans R 1.2 GA 8
20 MD 1 Frank Kratovil Incumbent D Andy Harris Leans R 1.2 MD 1
21 OH 1 Steve Driehaus Incumbent D Steve Chabot Leans R 1.2 OH 1
22 WI 8 Steve Kagen Incumbent D Reid Ribble Leans R 1.2 WI 8
23 NM 2 Harry Teague Incumbent D Steve Pearce Leans R 1.0 NM 2
24 SC 5 John Spratt Jr. Incumbent D Mick Mulvaney Leans R 1.0 SC 5
25 VA 2 Glenn Nye Incumbent D Scott Rigell Leans R 1.0 VA 2
26 AR 1 Chad Causey Open D Rick Crawford Leans R 0.8 AR 1
27 NV 3 Dina Titus Incumbent D Dr. Joe Heck Leans R 0.8 NV 3
28 VA 5 Tom Perriello Incumbent D Robert Hurt Leans R 0.8 VA 5
29 WA 3 Denny Heck Open D Jaime Herrera Leans R 0.8 WA 3
30 IN 9 Baron Hill Incumbent D Todd Young Leans R 0.7 IN 9
31 OH 16 John Boccieri Incumbent D Jim Renacci Leans R 0.7 OH 16
32 WI 7 Julie Lassa Open D Sean Duffy Leans R 0.7 WI 7
33 AZ 5 Harold Mitchell Incumbent D David Schweikert Toss-Up 0.5 AZ 5
34 CA 11 Jerry McNerney Incumbent D David Harmer Toss-Up 0.5 CA 11
35 CO 3 John Salazar Incumbent D Scott Tipton Toss-Up 0.5 CO 3
36 IL 14 Bill Foster Incumbent D Randy Hultgren Toss-Up 0.5 IL 14
37 MS 1 Travis Childers Incumbent D Alan Nunnelee Toss-Up 0.5 MS 1
38 ND AL Earl Pomeroy Incumbent D Rick Berg Toss-Up 0.5 ND AL
39 NY 20 Scott Murphy Incumbent D Chris Gibson Toss-Up 0.5 NY 20
40 NY 23 Bill Owens Incumbent D Matt Doheny Toss-Up 0.5 NY 23
41 PA 7 Bryan Lentz Open D Pat Meehan Toss-Up 0.5 PA 7
42 PA 10 Chris Carney Incumbent D Tom Marino Toss-Up 0.5 PA 10
43 PA 11 Paul Kanjorski Incumbent D Lou Barletta Toss-Up 0.5 PA 11
44 SD AL Stephanie Sandlin Incumbent D Kristi Noem Toss-Up 0.5 SD AL
45 TX 23 Ciro Rodriguez Incumbent D Quico Canseco Toss-Up 0.5 TX 23
46 FL 22 Ron Klein Incumbent D Allen West Toss-Up 0.3 FL 22
47 GA 2 Sanford Bishop Incumbent D Mike Keown Toss-Up 0.3 GA 2
48 IL 17 Phil Hare Incumbent D Bobby Schilling Toss-Up 0.3 IL 17
49 MI 7 Mark Schauer Incumbent D Tim Walberg Toss-Up 0.3 MI 7
50 NH 2 Annie Kuster Open D Charlie Bass Toss-Up 0.3 NH 2
51 NJ 3 John Adler Incumbent D Jon Runyan Toss-Up 0.3 NJ 3
52 NY 19 John Hall Incumbent D Nan Hayworth Toss-Up 0.3 NY 19
53 OH 18 Zach Space Incumbent D Bob Gibbs Toss-Up 0.3 OH 18
54 PA 8 Patrick Murphy Incumbent D Mike Fitzpatrick Toss-Up 0.3 PA 8
55 TN 4 Lincoln Davis Incumbent D Dr. Scott Desjarlais Toss-Up 0.3 TN 4
56 WV 1 Mike Oliverio Open D David B. McKinley Toss-Up 0.3 WV 1
57 AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords Incumbent D Jesse Kelly Toss-Up 0.2 AZ 8
58 NC 8 Larry Kissell Incumbent D Harold Johnson Toss-Up 0.2 NC 8
59 MA 10 William Keating Open D Jeff Perry Toss-Up 0.0 MA 10
60 OR 5 Kurt Schrader Incumbent D Scott Bruun Toss-Up 0.0 OR 5
61 CA 20 Jim Costa Incumbent D Andy Vidak Toss-Up -0.2 CA 20
62 ID 1 Walter Minnick Incumbent D Raul Labrador Toss-Up -0.2 ID 1
63 MO 4 Ike Skelton Incumbent D Vicky Hartzler Toss-Up -0.3 MO 4
64 NY 24 Mike Arcuri Incumbent D Richard Hanna Toss-Up -0.3 NY 24
65 AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D Martha Roby Toss-Up -0.5 AL 2
66 MS 4 Gene Taylor Incumbent D Steven Palazzo Toss-Up -0.5 MS 4
67 NM 1 Martin Heinrich Incumbent D Jon Barela Toss-Up -0.5 NM 1
68 NY 1 Tim Bishop Incumbent D Randy Altschuler Toss-Up -0.5 NY 1
69 OH 6 Charlie Wilson Incumbent D Bill Johnson Toss-Up -0.5 OH 6
70 VA 9 Rick Boucher Incumbent D Morgan Griffith Toss-Up -0.5 VA 9
71 PA 12 Mark Critz Incumbent D Timothy Burns Leans D -0.7 PA 12
72 IN 2 Joe Donnelly Incumbent D Jackie Walorski Leans D -0.7 IN 2
73 KY 6 Ben Chandler Incumbent D Andy Barr Leans D -0.7 KY 6
74 VA 11 Gerald Connolly Incumbent D Keith Fimian Leans D -0.7 VA 11
75 WA 2 Rick Larsen Incumbent D John Koster Leans D -0.7 WA 2
76 AZ 7 Raúl Grijalva Incumbent D Ruth McClung Leans D -0.8 AZ 7
77 CT 4 Jim Himes Incumbent D Dan Debicella Leans D -1.0 CT 4
78 CT 5 Christopher Murphy Incumbent D Sam Caligiuri Leans D -1.0 CT 5
79 IA 3 Leonard Boswell Incumbent D Brad Zaun Leans D -1.0 IA 3
80 MI 9 Gary Peters Incumbent D "Rocky" Raczowski Leans D -1.0 MI 9
81 NC 2 Bob Etheridge Incumbent D Renee Ellmers Leans D -1.0 NC 2
82 CA 47 Loretta Sanchez Incumbent D Van Tran Leans D -1.2 CA 47
83 NC 7 Mike McIntyre Incumbent D Ilario Pantano Leans D -1.2 NC 7
84 NY 13 Mike McMahon Incumbent D Mike Grimm Leans D -1.2 NY 13
85 RI 1 David Cicilline Open D John Loughlin Leans D -1.2 RI 1
86 WI 3 Ron Kind Incumbent D Dan Kapanke Leans D -1.2 WI 3
87 CO 7 Ed Perlmutter Incumbent D Ryan Frazier Leans D -1.3 CO 7
88 IA 2 Dave Loebsack Incumbent D Marianneette Miller Meeks Leans D -1.3 IA 2
89 MN 1 Tim Walz Incumbent D Randy Demmer Leans D -1.3 MN 1
90 MN 8 Jim Oberstar Incumbent D Chip Cravaack Leans D -1.3 MN 8
91 TX 27 Solomon Ortiz Incumbent D R. Blake Farenthold Leans D -1.3 TX 27
92 IA 1 Bruce Braley Incumbent D Ben Lange Leans D -1.5 IA 1
93 MO 3 Russ Carnahan Incumbent D Ed Martin Leans D -1.5 MO 3
94 NC 11 Heath Shuler Incumbent D Jeff Miller Leans D -1.5 NC 4
95 NY 25 Dan Maffei Incumbent D Ann Marie Buerkle Leans D -1.5 NY 25
96 ME 1 Chellie Pingree Incumbent D Dean Scontras Likely D -1.7 ME 1
97 PA 4 Jason Altmire Incumbent D Keith Rothfus Likely D -1.7 PA 4
98 MA 4 Barney Frank Incumbent D Sean Bielat Likely D -1.8 MA 4
99 NY 22 Maurice Hinchey Incumbent D George Phillips Likely D -1.8 NY 22
100 OH 13 Betty Sutton Incumbent D Tom Ganley Likely D -1.8 OH 13
101 WV 3 Nick Rahall Incumbent D "Spike" Maynard Likely D -2.0 WV 3
102 ME 2 Mike Michaud Incumbent D Jason Levesque Likely D -2.2 ME 2
103 PA 17 Tim Holden Incumbent D David Argall Likely D -2.2 PA 17
104 IL 8 Melissa Bean Incumbent D Joe Walsh Likely D -2.3 IL 8
105 UT 2 Jim Matheson Incumbent D Morgan Philpot Likely D -2.3 UT 2