1 Nov - FINAL UPDATE - We added ME-02 and UT-02 to the Master List - 112 Seats in Play

THIS IS THE FINAL UPDATE OF THE KEY HOUSE RACES MASTER LIST

So of course we just had to add two more Vulnerable Dems: ME-02 and UT-02.

So we now have 112 seats in play - 105 Dem seats and 7 for the Republicans. And only 4 of those GOP seats are looking vulnerable at this point.

Freeper PJ Too has been  generating weekly Pickup Projections based on the KeyHouseRace Master List and the latest polls. PJ has two ways of modeling his pickup projection: Expert Ratings Based and Poll Based. We have put links to both models on the Home Page at KHR. Note that these projections are updated each Saturday afternoon.

We've also been posting the KHR Pickup Projection and the projections by several other sources on the Home Page at KHR. These projections have been moving up steadily. A good example of this is Real Clear Poliltics. Two weeks ago RCP was predicting a pickup of 53 seats. A week ago their estimate was 59. Last Saturday their estimate was 65 seats. Today RCP predicts a pickup of 67 seats. That's a very nice trend.

Here is the current summary:

 

And this was the biggest week ever on KHR for upgrades by our "Experts". In the Saturday Update we had 137 updates that were favorable to the GOP and 25 for the Dems. Over the weekend and on this Monday before the election there were additional updates from RCP, EP, Cook and CQ Politics and so we have new totals for the updates referenced to 9 days ago:

Experts: GOP 162 and Dems 27

And also worth noting:

Three Weeks of Expert Updates: GOP 312 and Dems 45

Our index improved to +.043 from last weeks -.068 even with the addition of 6 new Dem seats in the last 9 days which skews the index in favor of the Dems.

SO OUR INDEX ENDED UP IN POSITIVE TERRITORY. What does that mean? It means that the assessment of our Experts is that the full list of 112 seats in play (105 Dems and 7 Republicans) tilts GOP on the average. We don't like to brag but we pointed out months ago that if our index reached positive values then we were looking at a huge Republican victory in November and that's the way  it looks right now.

Some statistics about the Master List:

  • This week we have 70 Dem seats that rank no better than Toss-Up Leaning D. That's up from 68 two days ago, 63 a week ago and 61 two weeks ago.
  • 95 Dem seats are rated no better (for the Dems) than Leans D. That's up from 89 on Saturday, 83 a week ago and 78 two weeks ago.
  • Only 10 of the 105 Dem seats look relatively safe with a Likely D average.

 

District Democrat Seat Republican Experts District
  AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D Martha Roby Toss-Up AL 2
                 
  AR 1 Chad Causey Open D Rick Crawford Leans R AR 1
  AR 2 Joyce Elliott Open D Tim Griffin Likely R AR 2
                 
  AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick Incumbent D Paul Gosar Leans R AZ 1
  AZ 5 Harold Mitchell Incumbent D David Schweikert Toss-Up AZ 5
  AZ 7 Raúl Grijalva Incumbent D Ruth McClung Leans D AZ 7
  AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords Incumbent D Jesse Kelly Toss-Up AZ 8
                 
  CA 3 Ami Bera Incumbent R Dan Lungren Leans R CA 3
  CA 11 Jerry McNerney Incumbent D David Harmer Toss-Up CA 11
  CA 20 Jim Costa Incumbent D Andy Vidak Toss-Up CA 20
  CA 47 Loretta Sanchez Incumbent D Van Tran Leans D CA 47
                 
  CO 3 John Salazar Incumbent D Scott Tipton Toss-Up CO 3
  CO 4 Betsy Markey Incumbent D Cory Gardner Leans R CO 4
  CO 7 Ed Perlmutter Incumbent D Ryan Frazier Leans D CO 7
                 
  CT 4 Jim Himes Incumbent D Dan Debicella Leans D CT 4
  CT 5 Christopher Murphy Incumbent D Sam Caligiuri Leans D CT 5
                 
  DE AL John Carney Open R Glen Urquhart Leans D DE AL
                 
  FL 2 Allen Boyd Incumbent D Steve Southerland Leans R FL 2
  FL 8 Alan Grayson Incumbent D Daniel Webster Leans R FL 8
  FL 22 Ron Klein Incumbent D Allen West Toss-Up FL 22
  FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas Incumbent D Sandy Adams Leans R FL 24
  FL 25 Joe Garcia Open R David Rivera Leans R FL 25
                 
  GA 2 Sanford Bishop Incumbent D Mike Keown Toss-Up GA 2
  GA 8 Jim Marshall Incumbent D Austin Scott Leans R GA 8
                 
  HI 1 Colleen Hanabusa Incumbent R Charles Djou Toss-Up HI 1
                 
  IA 1 Bruce Braley Incumbent D Ben Lange Leans D IA 1
  IA 2 Dave Loebsack Incumbent D Marianneette Miller Meeks Leans D IA 2
  IA 3 Leonard Boswell Incumbent D Brad Zaun Leans D IA 3
                 
  ID 1 Walter Minnick Incumbent D Raul Labrador Toss-Up ID 1
                 
  IL 8 Melissa Bean Incumbent D Joe Walsh Likely D IL 8
  IL 10 Dan Seals Open R Bob Dold Toss-Up IL 10
  IL 11 Debbie Halvorson Incumbent D Adam Kinzinger Likely R IL 11
  IL 14 Bill Foster Incumbent D Randy Hultgren Toss-Up IL 14
  IL 17 Phil Hare Incumbent D Bobby Schilling Toss-Up IL 17
                 
  IN 2 Joe Donnelly Incumbent D Jackie Walorski Leans D IN 2
  IN 8 W. Trent Van Haaften Open D Dr. Larry Bucshon Likely R IN 8
  IN 9 Baron Hill Incumbent D Todd Young Leans R IN 9
                 
  KS 3 Stephene Moore Open D Kevin Yoder Likely R KS 3
                 
  KY 6 Ben Chandler Incumbent D Andy Barr Leans D KY 6
                 
  LA 2 Cedric Richmond Incumbent R Joseph Cao Leans D LA 2
  LA 3 Ravi Sangisetty Open D Jeff Landry Likely R LA 3
                 
  MA 4 Barney Frank Incumbent D Sean Bielat Likely D MA 4
  MA 10 William Keating Open D Jeff Perry Toss-Up MA 10
                 
  MD 1 Frank Kratovil Incumbent D Andy Harris Leans R MD 1
                 
  ME 1 Chellie Pingree Incumbent D Dean Scontras Likely D ME 1
  ME 2 Mike Michaud Incumbent D Jason Levesque Likely D ME 2
                 
  MI 1 Gary McDowell Open D Dr. Daniel Benishek Leans R MI 1
  MI 7 Mark Schauer Incumbent D Tim Walberg Toss-Up MI 7
  MI 9 Gary Peters Incumbent D "Rocky" Raczowski Leans D MI 9
                 
  MN 1 Tim Walz Incumbent D Randy Demmer Leans D MN 1
  MN 8 Jim Oberstar Incumbent D Chip Cravaack Leans D MN 8
                 
  MO 3 Russ Carnahan Incumbent D Ed Martin Leans D MO 3
  MO 4 Ike Skelton Incumbent D Vicky Hartzler Toss-Up MO 4
                 
  MS 1 Travis Childers Incumbent D Alan Nunnelee Toss-Up MS 1
  MS 4 Gene Taylor Incumbent D Steven Palazzo Toss-Up MS 4
                 
  NC 2 Bob Etheridge Incumbent D Renee Ellmers Leans D NC 2
  NC 7 Mike McIntyre Incumbent D Ilario Pantano Leans D NC 7
  NC 8 Larry Kissell Incumbent D Harold Johnson Toss-Up NC 8
  NC 11 Heath Shuler Incumbent D Jeff Miller Leans D NC 4
                 
  ND AL Earl Pomeroy Incumbent D Rick Berg Toss-Up ND AL
                 
  NH 1 Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent D Frank Guinta Leans R NH 1
  NH 2 Annie Kuster Open D Charlie Bass Toss-Up NH 2
                 
  NJ 3 John Adler Incumbent D Jon Runyan Toss-Up NJ 3
                 
  NM 1 Martin Heinrich Incumbent D Jon Barela Toss-Up NM 1
  NM 2 Harry Teague Incumbent D Steve Pearce Leans R NM 2
                 
  NV 3 Dina Titus Incumbent D Dr. Joe Heck Leans R NV 3
                 
  NY 1 Tim Bishop Incumbent D Randy Altschuler Toss-Up NY 1
  NY 13 Mike McMahon Incumbent D Mike Grimm Leans D NY 13
  NY 19 John Hall Incumbent D Nan Hayworth Toss-Up NY 19
  NY 20 Scott Murphy Incumbent D Chris Gibson Toss-Up NY 20
  NY 22 Maurice Hinchey Incumbent D George Phillips Likely D NY 22
  NY 23 Bill Owens Incumbent D Matt Doheny Toss-Up NY 23
  NY 24 Mike Arcuri Incumbent D Richard Hanna Toss-Up NY 24
  NY 25 Dan Maffei Incumbent D Ann Marie Buerkle Leans D NY 25
  NY 29 Mathew Zeller Open D Tom Reed Likely R NY 29
                 
  OH 1 Steve Driehaus Incumbent D Steve Chabot Leans R OH 1
  OH 6 Charlie Wilson Incumbent D Bill Johnson Toss-Up OH 6
  OH 13 Betty Sutton Incumbent D Tom Ganley Likely D OH 13
  OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy Incumbent D Steve Stivers Likely R OH 15
  OH 16 John Boccieri Incumbent D Jim Renacci Leans R OH 16
  OH 18 Zach Space Incumbent D Bob Gibbs Toss-Up OH 18
                 
  OR 5 Kurt Schrader Incumbent D Scott Bruun Toss-Up OR 5
                 
  PA 3 Kathleen Dahlkemper Incumbent D Mike Kelly Leans R PA 3
  PA 4 Jason Altmire Incumbent D Keith Rothfus Likely D PA 4
  PA 7 Bryan Lentz Open D Pat Meehan Toss-Up PA 7
  PA 8 Patrick Murphy Incumbent D Mike Fitzpatrick Toss-Up PA 8
  PA 10 Chris Carney Incumbent D Tom Marino Toss-Up PA 10
  PA 11 Paul Kanjorski Incumbent D Lou Barletta Toss-Up PA 11
  PA 12 Mark Critz Incumbent D Timothy Burns Leans D PA 12
  PA 17 Tim Holden Incumbent D David Argall Likely D PA 17
                 
  RI 1 David Cicilline Open D John Loughlin Leans D RI 1
                 
  SC 5 John Spratt Jr. Incumbent D Mick Mulvaney Leans R SC 5
                 
  SD AL Stephanie Sandlin Incumbent D Kristi Noem Toss-Up SD AL
                 
  TN 4 Lincoln Davis Incumbent D Dr. Scott Desjarlais Toss-Up TN 4
  TN 6 Brett Carter Open D Diane Black Likely R TN 6
  TN 8 Roy Herron Open D Stephen Fincher Likely R TN 8
                 
  TX 17 Chet Edwards Incumbent D Bill Flores Likely R TX 17
  TX 23 Ciro Rodriguez Incumbent D Quico Canseco Toss-Up TX 23
  TX 27 Solomon Ortiz Incumbent D R. Blake Farenthold Leans D TX 27
                 
  UT 2 Jim Matheson Incumbent D Morgan Philpot Likely D UT 2
                 
  VA 2 Glenn Nye Incumbent D Scott Rigell Leans R VA 2
  VA 5 Tom Perriello Incumbent D Robert Hurt Leans R VA 5
  VA 9 Rick Boucher Incumbent D Morgan Griffith Toss-Up VA 9
  VA 11 Gerald Connolly Incumbent D Keith Fimian Leans D VA 11
                 
  WA 2 Rick Larsen Incumbent D John Koster Leans D WA 2
  WA 3 Denny Heck Open D Jaime Herrera Leans R WA 3
  WA 8 Suzan DelBene Incumbent R Dave Reichert Leans R WA 8
                 
  WI 3 Ron Kind Incumbent D Dan Kapanke Leans D WI 3
  WI 7 Julie Lassa Open D Sean Duffy Leans R WI 7
  WI 8 Steve Kagen Incumbent D Reid Ribble Leans R WI 8
                 
  WV 1 Mike Oliverio Open D David B. McKinley Toss-Up WV 1
  WV 3 Nick Rahall Incumbent D "Spike" Maynard Likely D WV 3
         
Rating and Color Code Average Expert Average 0.043
     
From To      
Safe D -3 -2.5      
Safe D -2.5 -1.5      
Leans D -1.5 -0.5      
Toss-Up -> D -0.5 0      
Toss-Up -> R 0 0.5      
Leans R 0.5 1.5      
Likely R 1.5 2.5      
Safe R 2.5 3.5      
Updated 1-Nov-10